Forecasts Instead of Gut Feeling – How Smart Planning Reduces Labor Costs

Forecasts Instead of Gut Feeling: How Smart Planning Reduces Labor Costs

1. Problem, Relevance, Expectation

In the hospitality sector, a few percentage points often determine profit or loss. Yet many shifts are still scheduled based on gut feeling. The result: overstaffing, wasted resources, and economic losses – an unsustainable situation in the age of digital tools.

More and more businesses are realizing: systematic planning based on data saves resources, improves profitability, and enhances the guest experience. This article shows how accurate forecasts – enabled by AI-powered tools like Nesto – can make this possible.

2. From the Field

Case Study – Kaimug: Flexibility Through Accurate Forecasting

With the implementation of Nesto’s AI-driven workforce planning tool, Kaimug has fundamentally optimized its operations. Nesto’s forecasting engine uses historical sales data, employee availability, and external factors like weather forecasts to create reliable shift schedules. This data-driven planning approach increases both predictability and team acceptance.

“Nesto can forecast sales and generate suggestions that are very close to reality. It makes planning not only more efficient but also more transparent for everyone involved,” says Sebastian Remus, Managing Director of the Kaimug Group.

Automation not only saves planning time but also real money by avoiding overstaffing and inefficient scheduling. Even minor adjustments can have major financial impact.

Read the full case study here: Efficient Workforce Planning with Nesto: Kaimug’s Success Story

3. Causes & Challenges

• Rigid planning systems that lack contextual data (e.g. weather, events, guest traffic)
• Lack of transparency between service and planning departments
• Insufficient data foundation for informed decisions
• Centralized control with no local relevance, especially in franchise networks
• Reactive instead of preventive planning in day-to-day operations

4. Solutions & Benefits

Optimize workforce allocation

Precise demand forecasts align shifts with actual needs – eliminating overtime and idle time.

Improve compliance

Planning based on traceable data creates solid documentation and reduces labor law risks.

Increase profitability

Less waste, better staff allocation, and higher guest satisfaction directly improve bottom-line results.

Enable standardization & scalability

Forecasting tools create a consistent decision base across franchises – locally adaptable, centrally controlled.

5. Expertise / Models

Time-series forecasting is at the core of modern planning. Historical data sets (e.g., revenues, visitor numbers) are analyzed to predict future developments.

The more these models incorporate external variables like public holidays, weather, events, promotions, or site-specific factors, the more accurate the forecasts. AI-powered tools like Nesto use machine learning to continuously adapt to new patterns – whether post-pandemic shifts or market expansion scenarios.

6. Tools & Implementation

Effective workforce management starts with the right data. Nesto integrates POS systems, weather services, event databases, and HR platforms into a cohesive forecasting model. Key components include:

• Live synchronization of sales and staffing data
• Automatic integration of public holiday and weather calendars
• Self-learning algorithms tailored to location and daypart profiles
• Operational dashboards for HR, ops, and store managers

The result: reliable decisions instead of reactive guessing.

7. Checklist / Tips

Do you have access to at least 12 months of historical sales data?
Do you consider external factors such as weather, holidays, or school breaks?
Are finance, HR, and planning working with the same data sources?
Do you see recurring issues in labor planning or procurement?
Are you already using digital tools for forecasting or scheduling?

8. Conclusion

Losses from poor planning aren’t a business risk – they’re avoidable. Relying on historical averages leaves potential untapped. Smart forecasting enables efficiency, predictability, and satisfaction – for guests and teams alike.

Nesto helps hospitality businesses shift from gut feeling to data-driven control – precise, scalable, and seamlessly integrated.